Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 22.997118 25.045012 27.261424 29.850456 32.807041 36.096357 40.058244
2025-11-23 19.681325 22.454667 25.668971 29.716570 34.745708 40.883337 49.092767
2025-11-30 17.380421 20.531392 24.379065 29.521726 36.374249 45.438875 58.795309
2025-12-07 15.789184 19.176653 23.491887 29.554395 38.138081 50.352895 70.097334
2025-12-14 14.515402 18.029242 22.663103 29.451783 39.582899 54.980171 82.153197
2025-12-21 13.847185 17.575472 22.661162 30.430667 42.671375 62.631116 101.520683
2025-12-28 12.903450 16.637451 21.859030 30.090984 43.613318 66.935749 116.311852
2026-01-04 12.185115 15.940767 21.315232 30.043935 44.973058 72.203465 135.078786
2026-01-11 11.648978 15.452454 21.017940 30.324502 46.899910 78.934667 160.223060
2026-01-18 11.045906 14.815235 20.430069 30.044636 47.753990 83.715286 183.031481
2026-01-25 10.545650 14.292699 19.969872 29.916021 48.850288 89.263158 211.323172
2026-02-01 10.117335 13.847922 19.591927 29.878774 50.103612 95.487465 246.159471
2026-02-08 9.682427 13.377334 19.154699 29.723725 51.174007 101.808866 287.768950
2026-02-15 9.283593 12.939983 18.741159 29.572353 52.246123 108.555504 338.717060
2026-02-22 8.909901 12.519920 18.325011 29.371247 53.182881 115.308511 398.880338
2026-03-01 8.607466 12.195592 18.045907 29.400474 54.647841 124.151501 484.774976
2026-03-08 8.307563 11.857724 17.718178 29.297287 55.787139 132.499103 585.632996
2026-03-15 8.197920 11.824108 17.916561 30.268176 59.732940 151.894706 827.993054
2026-03-22 7.900281 11.461071 17.502787 29.930839 60.298957 159.730195 1000.185492
2026-03-29 7.665207 11.191263 17.239458 29.884047 61.631931 171.245702 1279.653889
2026-04-05 7.490213 11.014135 17.132957 30.162427 63.916457 188.042507 1780.656745
2026-04-12 7.253111 10.719034 16.789137 29.884681 64.583546 198.298068 2290.689816
2026-04-19 7.049877 10.473358 16.523452 29.757038 65.677697 211.400714 3124.707832